The survival of the free world depends on recognizing that Putin’s Russia is a dying empire that will lash out at NATO to secure a winning narrative.
The Logic of the Mafia State
To understand Vladimir Putin’s next moves, one must stop viewing Russia as a classical dictatorship like Stalin’s Soviet Union and start seeing it as a mafia state. It is a volatile combination of imperialist ideology and a criminal syndicate. For the elite behind Putin, the war in Ukraine is not just a matter of national pride; it is a business venture. There was a brief window of hesitation recently where some members of the Russian elite, concerned about the damage to their global interests, considered whether it was time to freeze the conflict. However, that moment has passed. Putin has made his choice: he is doubling down.
In my twenty-six years of tracking Putin’s actions, his pattern has remained consistent: whenever he faces a crisis, he raises the stakes. While Ukraine’s strategic strikes on Russian refineries and logistics have been phenomenal, we should not underestimate Putin’s remaining resources. He likely lacks the capacity for a multi-year war of attrition, but he certainly has the reserves for a massive one-year push. Following the recent sham elections, we should expect further mobilization and an escalation of the rhetoric. The tone of Russian propaganda has shifted from uncertainty back to a totalizing demand for war until the end.
The Danger of a Dying Empire
The Russian empire is dying, and I believe we will see its end within our lifetime. But an empire in its death throes is like a falling dinosaur; it is most dangerous at the moment it collapses, and you do not want to be standing underneath it when it falls. For countries like Poland and the Baltic nations, this is an existential threat. Putin needs a winning narrative, and because Ukraine is not offering him an easy victory, he may look elsewhere to secure a political win that he can present to his people.
There is a growing probability that Putin will attempt a limited incursion into NATO territory—perhaps Estonia, Latvia, or Poland—using drones or small-scale provocations. His goal would not be a full-scale invasion of Europe, but rather a surgical strike to prove that Article 5 is a paper tiger. If he can demonstrate that the United States will not interfere and that NATO will not respond collectively, he achieves a massive political victory. The moment we begin to debate whether Article 5 applies is the moment the alliance dies, because its power lies entirely in its perceived invulnerability.
The Success of the Propaganda Machine
Western observers often wonder how Putin can justify such aggression to a population feeling the burden of fuel shortages and economic sanctions. The answer lies in the total saturation of the Russian information space. If you listen to Russian propaganda for even three days, you realize it is not a mix of truth and lies; it is a 100% pure fabrication that is nonetheless effective through sheer repetition. The Russian people are told they are not the aggressors, but the defenders. In their view, they are not at war with Ukraine, but with a hostile Europe that seeks to destroy them.
This propaganda is bolstered by the fact that the free world has done very little to attract anti-war or anti-Putin Russians. Many who wish to leave are trapped by sanctions that treat all Russians as a monolith, effectively handing Putin a talking point: 'Nobody wants you out there, so you must stay here and fight for Russia’s greatness.' Putin believes he is fighting a delayed version of World War III, seeking revenge for the collapse of the Soviet Union, which he views as the lost 'Cold War' of the previous century.
Building a Coalition of Necessity
In this environment, the only path forward is the construction of a broad, ironclad coalition. This is why I meet with politicians across the ideological spectrum, from the Polish presidency to various European ministers. We must leave behind historical grievances. While there is plenty of blood spilled in the history of Eastern Europe—between Poles, Ukrainians, and the Baltic peoples—the overarching threat to all our independence has always been Russian imperialism. We cannot afford the luxury of internal bickering while facing a threat of this magnitude.
I am often asked about the shifting political tides in Europe, specifically the rise of right-wing parties in France and Germany. While some of these factions are clearly parrotting Russian talking points, the situation is nuanced. In Poland, for instance, the political center of gravity is on the right, yet it remains the most clear-eyed and anti-Russian country in Europe. The real divide is not between left and right, but between those who recognize the geopolitical reality of the 'totalitarian world' and those who are still puzzled by the historical role they have been forced to play.
The Final Move on the Chessboard
In chess, the sign of greatness is not calculating twenty moves ahead at every turn, but recognizing the climax of a position—the moment where you must stop, spend your time, and go deep. We have reached that climax in global politics. We must think as many moves ahead as possible because the clock is running out on the Russian empire. Within ten years, I suspect Russia will no longer exist within its current borders. This is not a matter of what I want; it is a historical inevitability.
The collapse of the Russian empire will be the next stage in the global fight between freedom and tyranny. We must manage this collapse carefully, because a 'zombie empire' can still kill many souls before it finally rests. Furthermore, we must recognize that Russia is now the junior partner in a grander coalition led by China. The Chinese dragon is gradually swallowing the Russian bear. Our goal must be to ensure that whatever remains of Russia after its imperial collapse can eventually be integrated into the coalition of the free, rather than serving as a permanent tool for the world's autocrats.